June 20, 2008

• time for a post

  ahh, life is so busy recently.  I don’t have time to post.  When I’m driving to work, I think about all these ideas and thoughts and stuff I would probably like posting..  But then, work, bleh, no time..

  But at least now I have a helper in the datacenter.  We found someone from craigslist to help with all the little stuff which I had claimed all along would be much better for us to hire someone for $25/hr or whatever to do than have me do it.  Now I can worry about all the other things we have to get done, instead of spending hours per day just cabling servers, labeling them, installing shelves and racks etc etc.

  And I’m still looking forward to when this thing is done and I can transition out of full time.  I’ve been happy with how things have been going with my trading still.  The Dow is down almost 1000 pts from it’s high about a month ago (almost 10%), but I’m up 3% or so since then.  But maybe I’m just lucky!  I still have a lot to learn, but it’s so fun and interesting to learn.

  One of my most recent trades is a pair trade between Honda (HMC) and Ford (F).  The summary version of what a pair trade is you go long one stock and short the other one.  Guess which one I went long on.   For those that don’t know, I really like Honda.  And in fact what I was reading about Honda just before I started this post is what motivated me to post tonight.

  This month, Honda announced (essentially) a beta program for their new FCX Clarity.  What makes this special?  This is a fuel cell vehicle, a highly efficient type of car which runs on hydrogen, and produce no emissions except for water vapor.  This brings the grand total of retail (non prototype/concept) fuel vehicles I believe to 2, the first being the first generation Honda FCX.  The other amazing part is they are introducing a hydrogen “network,” a set of three Honda dealerships where you can fill up on hydrogen.  Because, as you may know, hydrogen isn’t one of those things you can easily go out and just buy at the store or gas station.  They are also pursuing a home refueling hydrogen station, which would make a fuel cell vehicle much more practical.

  This isn’t the first time Honda has been so forward thinking, in terms of environmentally and the global energy problem.  To make the effort to bring such a vehicle into the retail market is a fantastic way for them to lose a lot of money (hence why you don’t see every car maker producing fuel cell vehicles, etc), and they knowingly lose money in order to pave the way for the future.  They also sell the (to my knowledge) only retail natural gas vehicle, the Civic GX.  (You can get conversions/etc on other cars, but no other vehicle comes off the factory line able to drive on natural gas).  And Honda helped support the development of the Phill home natural gas refueler.  By purchasing a small appliance, you can easily and conveniently fill up your Civic GX while it’s parked in the garage overnight.  That’s actually _more_ convenient than going to the gas station.

  Another thing about Honda is if you walk through their dealerships, for the past 10 years or so, it seemed like every car had one of those LEV or ULEV or SULEV stickers on them.  I seem to remember even the NSX and S2000 (their sports cars) have some sort of LEV status.  Going back even farther, during 1992-1995, you could buy a Civic VX.  The Civic VX was a hatchback that got 50 mpg, that was over 10 years ago, without being a hybrid.  They stopped producing it because not many people bought it.  The 1989 CRX HF could get 50 mpg (in a slightly less useful 2 seater configuration).  In 1975, Honda introduced the CVCC engine, a special engine design which was exceptionally clean (it could pass the emissions standards _without_ a catalytic converter).

  So, I’ve always felt Honda was a little ahead of the times, their specialty in making clean, efficient economy cars has sometimes made it a challenge for them to thrive during the boom times when Americans were demanding bigger and bigger cars.  But, perhaps their time has again come.  Reports differ, but it is said the Ford F-series has been the best selling vehicle in the US for somewhere around 17 years or more.  No longer, last month, the Civic, Corolla, Camry, and Accord all came in above it.  In this article you can read just how huge a gain the Civic made in sales.  There has been a huge shift finally to smaller and more fuel efficient cars.  And, take note, this may be a sign of a deeper shift in the American psyche.

  It is possible this (among many other signs) is an indication we are heading towards a larger recession than I have ever witnessed in my adult life (which admittedly isn’t that long, but I can’t compare to what I’ve never seen, right?)  I’ve always felt the cycles in a market economy are actually driven by some sort of mass social sentiment (there are schools of economics based on this theory as well).  It’s possible we are seeing a shift towards retraction, conservation, less, reduction, etc – which will likely lead to a contraction in the economy.  Not permanently of course, but it might last a while.  Do I really know?  Of course not, this is just a premise.

  Ok, since it’s now 4am, maybe I should attempt to sleep.  Good night!

  • 7:18 am
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